Forward-looking: IDC recently unveiled its latest predictions for the semiconductor industry. According to the market intelligence firm, eight pivotal trends will influence the industry's resurgence, with artificial intelligence prominently featured as one of the main drivers.
Global demand for AI and HPC accelerators is exploding, IDC recently predicted, and traditional industries are stabilizing after the downturn suffered in 2023. The semiconductor industry, which includes products covering logic integrated circuits (IC), analog IC, microprocessors, microcontrollers, and memory chips, will soon experience a new wave of growth.
IDC notes that memory chip manufacturers have implemented strict supply and production controls to elevate prices since the beginning of November. Simultaneously, the demand for AI products across all "major applications" is expected to drive overall semiconductor sales growth throughout 2024. IDC senior research manager Galen Zeng anticipates that the entire semiconductor supply chain will bid farewell to a disappointing 2023.
Among the eight trends IDC forecasts for 2024 is an increase in sales, contributing to an annual growth rate of 20 percent for the entire market. The industry witnessed a 20 percent decline in the second half of 2023, and IDC now projects a 12 percent decline for the entire year. Factors such as reduced production levels, increased penetration of high-priced HBM memory chips, strong demand for AI chips, and the gradual recovery of smartphone demand are expected to drive a 20 percent growth rate in 2024.
IDC also foresees new market developments for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and infotainment devices. The increasing trend towards automotive intelligence and electrification is expected to become a crucial driver for the future semiconductor market, according to IDC. The company anticipates that AI chips and AI semiconductor logic will extend beyond data centers and high-performance computing (HPC) systems, with new AI-enabled smartphones, AI PCs, and AI wearable devices poised for imminent market launch.
IDC predicts a positive impact on the foundry industry from production recovery, noting that major players such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are actively working to stabilize end-user demand gradually. The chip manufacturing sector is anticipated to reach new heights, experiencing double-digit growth in 2024. China's production capacity is also expected to increase, while US export bans on cutting-edge manufacturing technology will drive the country's foundries to emphasize competitive pricing and focus on "mature" nodes.
Finally, IDC anticipates a significant uptick in demand for the most advanced semiconductor packaging solutions, with the 2.5/3D package market projected to grow by 22 percent annually from 2023 to 2028. The manufacturing capacity for chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) technology is set to increase by 130 percent by the second half of 2024, with more vendors entering the CoWoS supply chain. This, in turn, will result in a "robust" supply of AI chips in 2024, further accelerating the adoption of AI technology, according to IDC.